1) Long and intermediate trends: market remains in an uptrend and is developing a value area higher between 1391 and 1400 with fairest price at 1393. For more details please see Monday’s prep.
2) Short term trend: Price is imbalanced higher relative to the prior and the new developing value area (above). The prior value area ranges between 1362 and 1387 with fairest price at 1382.75. Here are my trading levels for today:
ES short term trend May 3 (click to enlarge)
3) Market Profile: yesterday’s market inched lower and remained balanced for most of the pit session and then moved higher towards the later half of the session. Price broke yesterday’s low but failed to continue. The end profile was a double distribution. The overnight profile is balanced higher.
ES market profile May 3
Scenarios for today: price is rotating higher within the current value area so we could see a retest of the previous 1414-17 levels in the next few trading sessions. I like the 1385-87 area for long positions and 1406-10 for short positions.
Today’s scheduled events:
- 8:30am – Unemployment Claims
- 8:30am – Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
- 8:30am – Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
- 10:00am – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30am – Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00am – FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 1:00pm – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
