Markets on Fire

1) Context: price is balanced in the daily chart with value between 1303 and 1324 and fairest price at 1319.

ES context May 28

Price is near imbalanced higher with value between 1303 and 1322 and fairest price at 1319. Here are my levels for today:

ES levels May 28

2) Structure: the structure is suggesting an uptrend with a sequence of swings high and low. That said, the overnight action failed to make new highs and lows. The pit session could give it the energy necessary to auction higher or break the trendline up.

ES structure (click to enlarge)

Scenarios for today:

1. Price seems to be in a short term uptrend so I will look for structural areas to build long positions. The 1300 area is still holding so that’s a reference area for stops
2. Price is imbalanced higher so I will look for buying weakness in this area to consider short positions

Today’s scheduled events:

- 10am – CB Consumer Confidence

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1) Context: price continues to find responsive buying around the 1300 area. I still need to see a break above 1340 and 1363 to consider the downtrend complete.

ES context May 24

Price is above value with balance between 1295 and 1313 and fairest price at 1305.75. Here are my levels and expectations for today:

ES levels May 24

2) Structure: the market auctioned price around the 1300 area and found responsive buyers. There are two multi pivot lines at 1294 and 1309.

ES structure May 24

Scenarios for today: the structure above shows a potential for responsive buying to step in at around the 1300 area again. I will use the structure above to hide stops.

Today’s scheduled events:

- 8:30am – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 8:30am – Unemployment Claims
- 8:30am – Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 10:30am – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
- 10:30am – Natural Gas Storage
- 1:00pm – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
- 3:00pm – Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks

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1) Context: price remains imbalanced lower at a macro level. I will be looking for a break of prior swings high at 1340.50 and 1363.75 for the uptrend to resume.

ES context May 22

Price is imbalanced higher relative to recent value with balance between 1296 and 1310 and fairest price at 1305. Here are my levels and expectations for today:

ES levels May 22 (click to enlarge)

2) Structure: the market is showing signs of buying strength and has begun to rotate higher. Note this could be short lived unless we see a break above prior swing highs. The overnight action bounced off of a short term swing high at 1317.50 and returned to the median line. We could still see a rotation down to the 1394-95 area.

ES structure May 22

Scenarios for today: I will look to join responsive sellers around the 1317-19 area and responsive buyers around the 1289-95 area.

Today’s scheduled events:

- 6:15am – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
- 10:00am – Existing Home Sales
- 10:00am – Richmond Manufacturing Index

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